China and Climate Change
The giant panda in the room
One of the uncomfortable facts of climate change is that if humanity is going to successfully limit emissions to a level that will keep the global temperature in check, it is going to have to be a top-down approach. It doesn’t matter how many paper straws you use, flights you avoid, or electric cars you buy. That isn’t going to make a difference. Real change has to come from the wholesale changes to the electricity grid. Moving away from fossil fuels, especially coal, is the only way to make real progress. And these changes can only come from government. Over the next few decades, humanity needs to move to low-carbon energy, whether that be wind, solar, hydropower, or nuclear. So, no, recycling plastics and reusing mason jars isn’t going to get the job done.
Beyond that, even if the entire European Union, the United States, Japan, Canada, and Australia, which combined make up about half of the world economy, are successful in largely transitioning to fossil fuels, it still won’t be enough. Those countries, despite being half of the world’s output, are responsible for less than a third of the world’s carbon emissions:
That isn’t to say these countries shouldn’t try. They should. Even though global emissions would still be increasing if those countries all sourced a majority of their power from low-carbon sources, that would be an important step. Most importantly, technology diffuses across national boundaries. If the French develop a new kind of nuclear reactor or the Germans a better windmill, then the rest of the world can benefit from it.
So if a group of the wealthiest countries in the world can’t tip the scales, who can?
China. China is a behemoth. Second only to the United States in terms of the size of its economy and over four times the size of Germany, the world’s third-largest economy. The world is transitioning from several decades of unipolarity, when there was the United States and everybody else, to bipolarity. As China continues to grow at a rapid clip, it will become a closer rival to the United States. It is already indispensable to the world economy. And it is the key to the green transition.
As with so many things, people want there to be one problem and one solution. Each player should be a villain or a hero. With regard to climate change, the villains are countries like the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Australia. Nations that pump and mine and exploit natural resources as if Earth were but one of many planets humanity has to choose from. Heroes are nations like Norway, Ethiopia, or Costa Rica. Countries that now generate as much renewable energy as they consume. Of course, even in these cases, the hero vs. villain designation is woefully insufficient. Norway may produce enough renewable energy to power their entire economy, but they also export oil by the literal boatload. Think Venezuela is an oil-rich state? Norway exports more oil than Venezuela could ever dream of.
So the hero vs. villain dichotomy is worthless. Even if it contains a grain of truth, China puts it completely to rest. Because when it comes to climate change, green energy, and the environment, China can claim to be both the biggest hero and villain.
When it comes to renewable energy and the green transition, China is a peer without equal. In 2021, global renewable energy generated about 8 billion gigawatt hours of power. China, by itself, was responsible for almost a third of that total. China is increasing renewable energy at a clip that would be unthinkable anywhere else. Wind farms and solar panels are being built across the nation at a breathtaking pace. Beyond electricity generation, China is also leading the way in electricity storage. Most of the world’s lithium batteries are either sourced or built or both in China. As the world begins to transition, China is leading the way.
That makes them sound like quite the hero.
But then there is the coal. China is growing at such a fast pace that even leading the world in renewable energy generation isn’t going to do the job. They need more power, and they need it now. It is coming from coal. It is frankly astonishing how many coal plants they are building. By one estimate, China is currently building more coal power plants than the rest of the world combined. Nine times as much as the rest of the world combined. They aren’t so much stepping on the gas as building a rocket ship while the rest of the world moves by hot air balloon. Not satisfied with building over a hundred coal plants a year in their own country, China is going abroad and helping other countries develop their own coal industry.
The result is that China is increasing its carbon emissions at a stratospheric rate. As is often the case, The Economist has the best graph:
There is China and everyone else, and they show no signs of slowing down. Fortunately, the rest of the world is transitioning away from coal, and that mostly balances out China’s increase.
The defense you’ll usually hear from China apologists is that they are just doing what the West did. When Europe and the United States wanted to grow their economies, they said to hell with the environment and polluted as much as they wanted. Well, now it’s China’s turn. This isn’t a bad argument, but is deficient and out of date for several reasons.
First, people weren’t widely aware during the Industrial Revolution that they were doing long-term harm to the Earth’s environment. You’d probably be hauled off to the looney bin if you claimed that burning coal was going to have the ability to change the world’s climate in 1910. Now we know better. Second, the cost-benefit of hurting the environment was different than it is now. China, while not a wealthy country, is much better off by today’s standards than any nation was 150 years ago. Back then, improving the economy meant decreasing the amount of malnourishment and subsistence living. If Malawi, which still deals with those issues, needs to rely on coal to lift its citizens out of extreme poverty, so be it. China does not.
Third, and most importantly, growth and emissions don’t go hand-in-hand anymore. The list of countries discussed already - the European Union, the United States, Japan, Canada, and Australia, have all grown over the last decade while their emissions have decreased. Emissions from the European Union peaked in 1979! The United States in 2007. It is true that in the 19th century and 20th century, economic growth meant higher emissions. That is no longer true. China is choosing to go all-in on coal because it offers a quick solution, not because it is the only solution.
So what’s the answer? That’s where things get tricky. There aren’t many ways to get China to change. International pressure won’t work because ultimately much of the world’s economy runs on Chinese factories and they know it. A global ban on the international sale of coal is a geopolitical non-starter for a whole host of reasons. The best answer is ultimately economic. The rest of the world needs to develop cheap low-carbon methods of generating and storing electricity. Once it is in China’s economic interest to transition away from coal they will do so. Until then, the fight against climate change will continue.