March Madness and Multi-Causality
Two things changed
When the NCAA announced in 2021 that athletes would be able to benefit from their name, image, and likeness (NIL), it sent shockwaves through college athletics. For years this was the most controversial issue in college sports. Despite earning millions for their schools, athletes had been prohibited from signing endorsement deals or profiting from their success. No other college student, from aspiring actors who performed in school plays to aspiring physical trainers who assisted with the gymnastics team, faced the same restrictions. Now those restrictions were lifted. All of a sudden, college athletes could be on commercials and Wheaties boxes.
One of the arguments against allowing NIL deals was that it would ruin athletic competitions like the NCAA men’s college basketball tournament, known as “March Madness”. One of America’s premier sporting events, every year 68 teams compete to be crowned the king of college basketball. The concern was that allowing athletes to make money would ruin “Cinderellas”, teams from small schools most have never heard of that beat famous athletic programs.
Every college basketball fan can name their favorite Cinderella school. One of the most famous is little-known George Mason University, which in 2006 went on one of the most astonishing runs of all time. As a low-ranked 11-seed, this school named for a secondary founding father beat powerhouses Michigan State, North Carolina, and Connecticut before falling to Florida in the semi-finals, also known as the Final Four. In 2018, UMBC became the first 16-seed (the worst seed) to defeat a 1-seed (the best seed) in the first round, dominating Virginia 74-54. What does UMBC stand for, you ask? Exactly, I reply. In 2022, Saint Peter’s became the first 15-seed to make the Elite 8, or quarter-finals, beating powerhouses Kentucky and Purdue before losing to North Carolina. Speaking of Purdue, who could ever forget what many have deemed the greatest upset in college basketball history? The Boilermakers, as a 1-seed, lost to 16-seed and yes-this-is-a-real-college Fairleigh Dickinson in the first round, a team that only made it into the tournament through an odd quirk in qualification rules. That year, Purdue had the tallest average height in the entire tournament. Fairleigh Dickinson was the shortest. David beat Goliath and entered college basketball history.
Those against NIL deals pointed out that with a profit motive, these Cinderellas would cease to exist. Before the NIL, second-tier players would often prefer to attend smaller programs because it meant they would get a chance to start rather than ride the bench. With NIL, if even bench players at the big schools are being paid six-figures to sit on the sidelines, that’s going to be a powerful motivator for a teenager when picking a school. Students who would have formerly attended Saint Peter’s with the goal of being a regular player may now choose to attend Kentucky and sit all the way to the bank.
Over the last few years, it’s begun to look like the naysayers were right. College basketball is divided into two informal groups: schools that play for the power conferences (the Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, ACC, Big East, and before it imploded, the Pac-12) and mid-major conferences (all the other conferences with Division I basketball programs). Historically, there was usually one mid-major conference that would make it to the Elite Eight. Often, one would make it to the Final Four. These were usually deemed Cinderellas, especially if they had a seed outside of the top five.
Over the past three tournaments, however, no team has been putting on a glass slipper. In 2024, all eight teams in the Elite 8 were from the power conferences. Clemson was an underdog as a 6-seed, but is from the SEC. 2025 was even worse, with 3-seed Texas Tech the biggest Elite 8 underdog. 2026 was a bit better, with 9-seed Iowa and 6-seed Tennessee making it to the quarterfinals, but again, both these schools are from power conferences. Not many fans are pulling up Wikipedia when they see “Texas Tech” on the bracket. The only hope for a low seed to make a deep run in 2026 was 11-seed Texas, hardly an anonymous institution.
Those critical of NIL have been taking a victory lap, pointing out that, lo and behold, paying players has doomed mid-major teams from making a run, just as they said. While the evidence is beginning to accumulate, it’s a bit premature.
First, NIL deals are not the only change that college basketball has undergone in recent years. In fact, opponents of NIL often omit that another massive change happened at the same time - a rewriting of transfer rules. Before Covid, most college basketball players had to sit out a year if they transferred. This was a high cost. Almost all basketball players would stay on the same team they originally signed with. Few wanted to spend a year watching from the sidelines. Today, however, players can transfer as much as they want and never have to sit out. This has led to some absurd situations, with some high-profile athletes playing for four different schools over their four years of eligibility.
The change of the transfer rules may be contributing more to the lack of Cinderellas than the NIL rules. Previously, a mid-major program could find an overlooked player or develop a good player into a great player and keep him on the team. This is how Steph Curry, the future NBA all-star, wound up at little Davidson College in North Carolina for his entire college career. The son of an NBA player and a star high school player himself, Curry was overlooked because he was only six foot two and weighed 160 pounds.
In 2007, Curry set the NCAA record for freshman three-pointers and was named his conference’s freshman of the year. If that happened today, power schools would be banging down his door trying to get him to transfer. At the time, however, that would mean sitting out a year, so he stayed at Davidson. He exploded onto the national scene in 2008, when he took 10-seed Davidson all the way to the Elite 8. In today’s world, Curry probably wouldn’t have stayed at Davidson to make such a run.
This is a great example of multi-causality. It could be true that allowing NIL deals doomed Cinderellas. But it also could be true that allowing unlimited transfers did the same. Since they happened at the same time, it’s likely impossible to decipher which is mostly responsible. Perhaps Cinderellas were doomed from either. Maybe even without NIL, the transfer rules would have ended Cinderella runs.
It’s also possible writing an obituary to Cinderella teams is premature. Three data points are the beginning of a trend, but just the beginning. Perhaps the next few seasons will see a return of mid-major teams making deep runs in the tournament. After all, the NIL and transfer rules went into effect in 2021, and the 2023 tournament saw 5-seed San Diego State and 9-seed Florida Atlantic make it all the way to the Final Four, with the former losing to UConn in the National Championship game.
Finally, it’s important to consider the effects this had on the players. Much has been written about whether NIL deals and the transfer portal are good for college sports. Much less about whether it’s good for college athletes. There will certainly be both good and bad outcomes from letting players transfer at will, but in this tournament, we saw a clear example of a positive outcome. 9-seed Iowa made it to the Elite 8 this year, upsetting 1-seed and defending champion Florida in the second round. Leading the way for the Hawkeyes was Bennet Stirtz, one of the best shooters in college basketball.
Stirtz was not highly recruited out of high school. He played his first year at Division II Northwest Missouri State and was named his conference’s freshman of the year. He then transferred to Division I Drake and was named their conference’s player of the year. He then transferred to Iowa for his junior year and was named to the All-Big Ten team. He’s currently projected to be a first-round NBA draft pick. One could pooh-pooh this as the professionalization of colleges sports. Three schools in there years? Has he ever stepped foot in a classroom?
At the same time, what an amazing story. A kid who got no attention from any college program proves himself and excels at every level. With the previous transfer rules, it’s likely Stirtz spends his entire college career under the radar. He certainly isn’t getting drafted in the first round. The new rules allowed him to develop his talent and maximize his potential, which, of course, is what college is all about.