The Next Pope

Geography may rule the day

Photo by Coronel G on Unsplash

For the first time in 12 years, the chair of Saint Peter is vacant. Over one hundred cardinals from around the world have gathered to elect Pope Francis’ successor. Much of the discussion has been about theology. After an eventful decade in which Francis built new bridges and burned some old ones, the world waits to see who the cardinals will elect pope. Will it be another reformer, one who wishes to continue Francis’ pastoral approach? Or will the princes of the church rebound and elect a man who will focus on stability and tradition?

A lot of what happens before, and certainly during, a conclave is reading tea leaves. There isn’t a lot of firm information out there. Cardinals are not supposed to repeat what happens during the conclave, so all reports must be taken with a grain of salt. Much of what happens in the lead-up and during a conclave is not known with certainty. Still, some clues point to which way the cardinals will vote before voting begins. Unlike the movie “Conclave”, the politicking begins before the conclave. In the film, many cardinals appear to be arriving mere hours before they are secluded; in reality, all cardinals have arrived mere days after the previous pope’s death and will have around two weeks to push their agenda before sequestration.

The New York Times reports the conservatives appear to have an early upper hand. They have centered on the theme of “unity”, which sounds apolitical but is actually a call to maintain the status quo. Regardless, there are plenty of alliances being built and battle lines being drawn as over a hundred electors vie to put their chosen candidate, or themselves, in poll position. This requires a delicate balance. Actively campaigning for the job is frowned upon. As the saying goes, “he who enters the conclave a pope, leave a cardinal”. While the focus of much of the media has been on the issues, a relative lack of attention has been given to the potential nationality of the next pope. That, in the end, may have as much sway as ideology.

In most ways the 2025 conclave is an exercise in tradition. A casting of hand-written ballots, a verbal counting of the votes, and the rest of the world literally reading smoke signals. The rules of the conclave do change over time. Most notably, heads of state used to have veto power. Emperor Franz Joseph of Austria used his veto to prevent his disfavored candidate from becoming pope in 1903. But much remains the same. What has changed recently is from where the pope hails. For an astonishing 455 years, every pope was Italian. Little could Pope Adrian VI have known, upon becoming pope in 1522, that he would be the last non-Italian pope until 1978. To put that in context, when the United States began its war for independence in 1776, Italian popes had reigned for more than a quarter of a millennium, and that streak would continue until after the US put a man on the moon.

That all changed with the election of Pope John Paul II. Born Karol Józef Wojtyła in Poland, today his election looks like the beginning of a trend. He was succeeded by Pope Benedict XVI of Germany, and then Pope Francis of Argentina. This could be viewed as a new era, an era where popes may not even be European, let alone Italian. But this type of thinking misunderstands the time horizon of the church. Three popes and 46 years would be a long time for almost any other organization. For the Catholic Church, it’s just a blip. As Stanley Tucci’s character in the movie “Spotlight” adeptly says, “The Church thinks in centuries”.

Consider the circumstances it took to break the streak of Italian popes. In August 1978, a conclave was held to elect the successor to Paul VI. It was a two-horse race. Both papabili, or contenders, were Italian. The first was a conservative, Giuseppe Siri. The second a moderate, Albino Luciani. Luciani quickly gained the support of the conclave and received the required 2/3 majority after just four ballots. He took the name John Paul I. The Cardinal from Vienna, Franz König, had proposed the relatively unknown Karol Józef Wojtyła of Poland as a candidate, but it never gained traction. Luciani was 65 when he became Pope John Paul I, so he could have had a long tenure and extended the Italian streak. Instead, he died barely a month into his papacy. This changed history.

For the second time in several months, the cardinals descended on Rome to vote in a papal conclave. Now the battle was between the same conservative candidate as before, Giuseppe Siri, and a new liberal candidate, also from Italy, Giovanni Benelli. Benelli had been a key supporter of Luciani during the August conclave, but having gotten his wish only to see his chosen candidate die after mere weeks in office, he moved from the role of power broker to papal contender. Accounts of what happened during first ballots differ, with some saying Siri was at one point within ten votes of being elected, others claiming Benelli was close to reaching the 2/3 majority.

Regardless, it was becoming clear neither the conservatives nor the liberals were going to build the necessary support. Voters began to look for a compromise candidate. They settled on Giovanni Colombo, yet another Italian. In a second event that will reverberate through history, Colombo announced he would not accept the position if he won. At this point, our old friend Franz König from Vienna swooped in to remind everyone, hey, I have a candidate from Poland who is a moderate and would be a great fit. Also, he’s only 58, which before John Paul I’s death would likely count against him, but now looks like an asset. After all, no one wants to have to do this a third time. Many agreed. The wind was now at Wojtyła’s back. He went from receiving only several votes to the 2/3 majority in a few ballots. He took the name John Paul II and was pope for 26 years.

It’s important to recognize just how many things came together to enable John Paul II to become pope. If either the conservatives or liberals had a bit more sway, their preferred candidate would have been elected in August of 1978. If Pope John Paul I had lived for even a few years, the conclave electorate would have evolved as old members aged out and new members were elected. If Colombo would have been willing to serve as pope, he likely would have become pope. In essence, the cardinals wanted a moderate, but their first choice died and their second declined the offer. In almost any other circumstances, John Paul II doesn’t get elected.

John Paul II’s successors also make me skeptical that the age of Italian popes is truly over. Some claim the dilution of Italian strength in the College of Cardinals marks the end of Italian power, but the reality is Italians haven’t had a majority since the 1939 conclave and are still the largest single bloc. Benedict XVI, formerly Joseph Ratzinger, was German, yes, but he was also the ultimate Vatican insider, having led the Dicastery for the Doctrine of the Faith for 24 years before becoming pope. Pope Francis was from Argentina, but both his parents were of Italian origin and he spoke the language fluently.

So while one can make the case that the Catholic Church has moved on from elected Italian popes, one can also make the case that John Paul II was elected due to extremely unusual circumstances, Benedict XVI was foreign but still European and a Roman Curia official through and through, and Francis was practically Italian. In some ways, the 2025 conclave may be the true test of Italian power. There isn’t a clear front-runner. No figure looms over the conclave like Benedict XVI. No candidate is an Italian in everything but place of birth like Francis. There are multiple qualified Italian candidates. If an Italian isn’t elected this time around, a new paradigm has formed.

As an aside, a delightful melodrama took place during the 2005 conclave. Joseph Ratzinger, aka Pope Benedict XVI, was viewed as a likely pope from the beginning and received the most votes on every ballot. However, one cardinal who had no interest in being pope, Giacomo Biffi of Bologna, received one vote during each of the first three ballots. Incensed, and likely worried his colleagues thought he was simply voting for himself, Biffi said that if he ever found how out who the one voter was, he would slap him. Apparently, the one voter was none other than Cardinal Ratzinger. I doubt Biffi went through with his threat.

The question then is, if not an Italian, who? Many have speculated for the past few conclaves that we may soon have an African pope. Africa is one of the fastest-growing areas of the church and there’s never been a pope from the Sub-Saharan part of the continent. There are some qualified candidates, notably Peter Turkson of Ghana and Robert Sarah of Guinea, but a lot of this is wish casting. The problem with African cardinals is they are uniformly conservative. Thus, liberal cardinals who are inclined to vote for an African will not be willing to abandon their ideology, and conservative cardinals will want to follow tradition as well as ideology and keep the pope European.

American cardinals face a similar problem. The bloc from the US is second only to the Italians in numbers and is easily second in terms of importance. American cardinals are generally disciplined and speak with one voice. They are, again, relatively conservative, so they face the same problems as African cardinals. On top of that, the College of Cardinals may be hesitant to elect a pope from the most powerful country in the world; it’s just too much influence. Cardinal Sean O’Malley of Boston was possibly the first American to receive votes during the 2013 conclave, but there’s little evidence he had any support outside his countrymen. Frankly, it is highly unlikely an American is elected pope anytime soon.

[ed note May 8, 2025: shows what I know. Every American priest I’ve heard speak on CNN is just as surprised, so I’m in good company.]

Who else is there? Luis Tagle of Manila is currently one of the front-runners and in many ways the most interesting choice. He follows in the mold of Francis by focusing on the pastoral mission of the church, and at 67 would likely be pope long enough to have a lasting impact. The question is whether he can consolidate enough support from the various liberal groups to be elected. The “periphery” of the church has more votes than in previous elections, but they may be unable to unify around one candidate. Péter Erdő of Budapest is arguably underrated as a dark horse candidate. At 72 he’s neither older, but not too old. As a conservative and European but not Italian, he may be viewed as an acceptable candidate by multiple factions of the conclave.

The Italians, meanwhile, have several viable candidates. Pietro Parolin will run the conclave and is currently the Vatican’s Secretary of State, which is second in power only to the pope himself. Matteo Zuppi of Bologna is Italian and progressive, so he could draw a wide range of support from both conservatives and reformers. Then there is Pierbattista yes-this-is-his-real-name Pizzaballa. He is Italian but serves as the Latin Patriarchate of Jerusalem, a post that requires serious diplomatic chops. Any of these three are strong candidates, so if the Italians can coalesce around one option they may carry the day.

All that said, ultimately it’s up to the cardinals, who despite their importance and righteousness, are of course mortal, imperfect men. Once those doors are shut (“extra omnes!”), 133 people will decide who will become the most powerful religious figure in the world. Godspeed.