Why Pope Leo XIV was Elected
It's the resume
Several weeks ago, I wrote about who the next pope could be. My main point was that geography could play a large role. The conclave was attended by 133 cardinals from around the globe. A record number and percentage were from outside Europe. If the next pope was not an Italian, it would signify the papacy was now an international office. I also said, “Frankly, it is highly unlikely an American is elected pope anytime soon.”
Oops.
The electors voted for an American. Cardinal Robert Prevost is now Pope Leo XIV. Prevost was on a few longlists as the next potential pope but was far from a front-runner. Yet not only was he elected, but he was elected quickly. It only took four ballots for him to reach the 2/3 majority needed to become the next pontiff. When Cardinal Dominique Mamberti announced from the St. Peter’s loggia the next pope was Cardinal Prevost, my jaw dropped. I was speechless. Prevost himself told a friend, “I’m an American, I can’t be elected.” How did it happen?
First, it’s important to note that while Pope Leo was a cardinal, and is an American, he wasn’t an “American cardinal” in the traditional sense. He’s only spent a few years living in the United States since becoming a priest. Instead, the majority of his professional life was spent in Peru and Italy. Crucially, unlike all but one of the other Americans who partook in the conclave, he was never an American bishop. This may seem like splitting hairs, but was likely important to his election. As I wrote previously, one of the key difficulties for American cardinals, that is, American bishops who are cardinals, is that they are often very conservative. This presents two problems. First, conclaves generally prefer moderates. Second, because ideological conservatives generally like tradition, they are more likely to back an Italian conservative than a conservative from another nation. Thus non-Italian conservatives have an uphill climb. Prevost, however, is viewed as a moderate, and more a citizen of the world than a traditional American.
What happened in the conclave is secret, so all reports of what happened once the doors of the Sistine Chapel were shut need to be taken with a grain of salt. That said, several news outlets, including the New York Times and Wall Street Journal, have compiled similar narratives. Especially because Leo XIV was elected so quickly, it’s likely the story emerging is accurate.
Unlike the movie “Conclave”, the politicking doesn’t wait until the conclave begins. Instead, as soon as cardinals arrive in Rome they are taking measure of one another, both formally and informally. In the weeks before sequestration, countless meetings are held. Cardinals discuss what they want in the next pope, what issues are most important, and who is best suited to address those concerns. According to reports, no one emerged from those meetings as the clear frontrunner. Several cardinals, including Prevost, spoke at least once at a larger gathering, but no one wowed the crowd in Hollywood fashion. Instead, it was during smaller meetings through the days leading up to the Conclave that Prevost impressed and became an option.
Four factors were key to Prevost being an early front-runner. First, geography. As an American by birth but a citizen and bishop of Peru, he had two large voting blocs that could claim him as their own. The American delegation was the second-largest contingent after Italy, so Prevost’s native country alone can supply a significant number of votes. Then there’s South America. For the South American cardinals, Prevost represented a golden opportunity. Pope Francis broke ground by being the first pope from South America. That alone was highly unlikely. Two South American popes in a row was likely impossible. Prevost, however, was an exception to that rule. He will largely be viewed as the first American pope, but he spent years in Peru and is a naturalized Peruvian citizen. For South American cardinals wanting to maintain their newfound geographical importance, Prevost was the only realistic option.
Second, language. The prevailing wisdom is that to be elected pope, one has to speak at least conversational Italian. That makes sense. The church is headquartered in Italy. Much of the staff that allows the Holy See to function is Italian. One cardinal even told reporters he deliberately didn’t learn Italian so that he couldn’t ever be pope. Prevost speaks fluent Italian, so is in good shape. Yet, for one of the first times in centuries, a language other than Italian is important: English. Pope Francis elevated bishops from around the world to Cardinals. For those from smaller countries with bespoke languages, English is the de facto lingua franca. Italian may be useful for Vatican insiders, but if a Polish Cardinal wants to talk to a Thai Cardinal, the most likely shared language is English. The power of English has risen to the point that during the conclave, according to the WSJ, “A frustrated caucus of Italian cardinals sat mostly among themselves, speaking in their own language. Nearby, cardinals from Asia, the Americas and Europe mingled and chatted in English, or used each other to translate.” Talk about adding insult to injury. Combine that with Prevost’s fluent Spanish, and he could converse with almost every voter.
Third, is Cardinal Timothy Dolan of New York. Dolan is a fascinating person. His larger-than-life personality jumps out in media appearances. He laughs it up with presidents and appears in the New Yorker. He also has no chance of ever being pope, and likely knows it. Cardinals would never vote for such a showman. This might sound limiting, but can also be freeing. Instead of worrying about being pope himself, he can play the role of kingmaker. And he has now done that. Twice.
In 2013, Cardinal Dolan was instrumental in the election of Pope Francis. I also suspect he was behind Boston Cardinal Seán O’Malley’s unprecedented first-round success in the 2013 conclave. No American had ever been a serious candidate, but O’Malley was viewed as a long-shot to replace Pope Benedict XVI. According to documents given to journalist Gerard O’Connell, O’Malley became the first American to get more than a token vote, earning ten in the first round. How many Americans (not counting O’Malley) voted in that conclave? Ten. His support disappeared in the second round. Dolan may have convinced his fellow Americans to vote for O’Malley, just for the first round, to at least break the glass ceiling that had kept Americans from getting votes. Perhaps this would set the stage for a later American to be a serious candidate. If so, Dolan was playing a long game that played off handsomely. According to multiple reports, during the 2025 conclave Cardinal Dolan acted as kingmaker, solidifying American support for Prevost while building up an international contingent. Again, English played a role. There was a meeting of English-speaking cardinals early on, and Prevost emerged as the most popular choice.
By the end of the first round of voting in the 2025 conclave, there were three contenders. Cardinal Pietro Parolin, an Italian, Vatican insider, and favorite, had the most votes after the first round. Behind him was Prevost and Cardinal Péter Erdő, a Hungarian bishop and conservative. As per usual, there was also a number of cardinals with fewer than five votes. The first day of the conclave only has one vote, so the cardinals retired to their rooms after a long day.
The next morning, there were two more ballots. Parolin and Erdő maintained their support. Prevost, meanwhile, was surging. The cardinals from the “periphery”, that is, non-traditional Catholic areas, who had voted for candidates other than the top three in the first round, were flocking to the American. After breaking for lunch, it became clear. Prevost had the wind at his back, and Parolin and Erdő were never going to acquire the necessary support. According to at least one source, Parolin either explicitly or tacitly backed Prevost after the third vote. During the fourth round, and the first after lunch on day two, Prevost won by a landslide, earning around 105 of the 133 votes. Pope Leo’s papacy had begun.
Fun fact: after a cardinal receives 2/3 of the votes of the conclave, the senior cardinal asks the candidate “Do you accept your canonical election as Supreme Pontiff?” When the candidate answers in the affirmative, that man is now pope. The papal inauguration that occurs several weeks after the conclave is purely symbolic.
Geography, language, and a well-connected supporter made Prevost a front-runner. What’s missing from this analysis, however, is what propelled Prevost from front-runner to home run: he is absurdly qualified. Most media account of the conclave have also missed this. Often, cardinals have to debate between picking a pope with experience as a bishop or with the Roman Curia. Between a pastoralist or a diplomat. Between an outsider or an insider. With Prevost, they had it all.
His biography, expertly related in this NYT article, is a cornucopia of experience. First, his journey to becoming a priest started when he was just 14. Rather than attend a regular high school like his siblings, he enrolled in an Augustinian seminary high school in Michigan. After becoming a priest, he worked as a missionary in Peru, at times risking his life to carry out his vocation. Then he was elected head of the Midwest branch of the Augustinians. Next, he became head of the entire Augustinian order, which has thousands of priests and locations around the world. Importantly, their headquarters is in Rome, just across the street from the Vatican. After two six-year terms as head of the Augustinians, Prevost was appointed bishop of Chiclayo, Peru. After that, he was appointed the prefect of the Dicastery for Bishops, the group that vets and recommends bishops.
In sum, he has missionary experience, led a global monastic order, ran a diocese, and worked in the Roman Curia. All of these positions are important, but what sets him apart is his time leading the Augustinians. As the saying goes, heavy is the head that carries the crown. Although bishops and Vatican staff all have a great deal of responsibility, it’s unusual to have a pope who has true CEO experience. Prevost does. I also suspect two years in the Curia might have been the perfect amount of time. Vatican insiders were able to gauge Prevost’s competency, but he didn’t have enough familiarity to breed much contempt.
The one question that may go unanswered is why Pope Francis elevated Prevost to such an important position in the Curia. The two did not get off to a good start. They met several times while Pope Francis, then Cardinal Jorge Bergoglio, was the archbishop of Buenos Aires and Prevost was head of the Augustinians. When Bergoglio was elected pope and took the name Francis, Prevost told others, “Thank God, I’m never going to become bishop… I’m not going to tell you the reason, but let’s just say that not all of my encounters with Cardinal Bergoglio ended in agreement.”
Despite this apparent lack of amity, Pope Francis clearly saw something in this talented Augustinian priest. Perhaps Prevost misread the situation, or Francis recognized that just because someone disagrees with you doesn’t mean they aren’t competent. Regardless, Pope Francis appointed Prevost bishop of Chiclayo, Peru. Which could be seen as a promotion, but could also be seen as the sidelining of a potential rival. Chiclayo isn’t exactly a key posting in the Catholic Church. With hindsight, it’s clear that Francis wanted Prevost to get some experience running a diocese and had higher office in mind for the Augustinian. At the time, however, it would be reasonable to assume Prevost was going to spend the rest of his ministry in Peru.
By 2021 rumors were swirling that Prevost was potentially up for a major promotion. Francis made his big move in 2023, appointing Prevost prefect of the Dicastery for Bishops. This had to turn a few heads. The previous prefect was Marc Ouellet, who had been archbishop of Quebec and was seen as a potential pope in 2013. Before Ouellet was Giovanni Re, a major Vatican power player. The prefect position doesn’t generally go to a bishop of a small city in South America. Francis recognized Prevost’s potential and rewarded him by bumping him from minor bishop to one of the most powerful men in the Vatican. Prevost showed he could handle that responsibility, and was quickly made a cardinal.
One of Francis's last acts was to promote Prevost to cardinal-bishop, the highest level of cardinal. One can’t help but wonder if Francis wanted Prevost to be his successor. It’s early days, but if so, all indications are he chose well.