Former econ student here, just wanted to say how interesting I found your post. I had no idea how ineffective most fertility policies are or that declining birth rates are such a widespread issue among wealthier nations. I really appreciated how you broke down the inefficiencies of current approaches and questioned whether we should be spending millions on them.
That said, I’d be curious to hear your thoughts on what could work. Ignoring alternatives like increased migration, is there any realistic way to encourage higher fertility rates? Or has the cultural shift, combined with access to birth control, made it unlikely we’ll ever return to previous birthrate levels?
Do you think what’s needed is a broader cultural change, like a shift in norms or values, something like “having babies is back in style in 2026”? Would love to hear more of your perspective on that.
A broader cultural change is the way to go - but how to get that to happen is a mystery. No wealthy country has high birth rates. There are a few societal segments - Mormons in America, for example, still have large families. They have large cultural pressures, however, and I don't think that can be easily replicated. As far as specific policy, maybe the only option would be to spend real money on the issue. In the US we currently give retirees tens of thousands of dollars a year from social security. What if families were given $2,000 a month per child per kid? Maybe that would work, but it would necessitate an entire overhaul of our welfare system to prioritize the young over the old, and the young can't vote. Even then, I'm not sure it would be successful.
IMO, the problem only gets worse with time as our lives become more convenient and easier. Raising a child is certainly easier than it was 100 years ago, but it hasn’t nearly scaled to the same degree as our entertainment, our consumption, our lifestyles. Child rearing is becoming relatively more and more self-sacrificing and difficult as the rest of our lives become amazingly comfortable. Compared to the alternatives, why would anyone choose that self-sacrifice? Either 1) child-rearing needs to become monumentally easier, like robo-nanny doing all the menial chores easier, but at that point humanity would be at an inflection point where we never have to work or do anything, and what’s left then? Or 2) everything else gets harder again, either from some enforced lifestyle changes (banning basically all forms of easy entertainment, etc) or societal collapse. Truly no easy way out!
Hi Professor,
Former econ student here, just wanted to say how interesting I found your post. I had no idea how ineffective most fertility policies are or that declining birth rates are such a widespread issue among wealthier nations. I really appreciated how you broke down the inefficiencies of current approaches and questioned whether we should be spending millions on them.
That said, I’d be curious to hear your thoughts on what could work. Ignoring alternatives like increased migration, is there any realistic way to encourage higher fertility rates? Or has the cultural shift, combined with access to birth control, made it unlikely we’ll ever return to previous birthrate levels?
Do you think what’s needed is a broader cultural change, like a shift in norms or values, something like “having babies is back in style in 2026”? Would love to hear more of your perspective on that.
Best,
Gabe
A broader cultural change is the way to go - but how to get that to happen is a mystery. No wealthy country has high birth rates. There are a few societal segments - Mormons in America, for example, still have large families. They have large cultural pressures, however, and I don't think that can be easily replicated. As far as specific policy, maybe the only option would be to spend real money on the issue. In the US we currently give retirees tens of thousands of dollars a year from social security. What if families were given $2,000 a month per child per kid? Maybe that would work, but it would necessitate an entire overhaul of our welfare system to prioritize the young over the old, and the young can't vote. Even then, I'm not sure it would be successful.
IMO, the problem only gets worse with time as our lives become more convenient and easier. Raising a child is certainly easier than it was 100 years ago, but it hasn’t nearly scaled to the same degree as our entertainment, our consumption, our lifestyles. Child rearing is becoming relatively more and more self-sacrificing and difficult as the rest of our lives become amazingly comfortable. Compared to the alternatives, why would anyone choose that self-sacrifice? Either 1) child-rearing needs to become monumentally easier, like robo-nanny doing all the menial chores easier, but at that point humanity would be at an inflection point where we never have to work or do anything, and what’s left then? Or 2) everything else gets harder again, either from some enforced lifestyle changes (banning basically all forms of easy entertainment, etc) or societal collapse. Truly no easy way out!