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Joel's avatar

Good use of a good teaching opportunity! While that was painful, it calls to mine much of the research I've seen indicating that statisticians, economists, and psychologists all, despite their extensive math training, have probabilistic intuitions as poor as any Joe off the street. Statisticians have been called in as expert witnesses in, for example, SIDS cases where the errors they committed in court are on a level with the above example. People were/are in prison for a long time because "experts" aren't as reliable as we (or they) think.

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Sacco, David's avatar

Is it possible he was just simplifying the analysis for the 90% of the podcast audience that couldn't handle the math anyway?

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