Good use of a good teaching opportunity! While that was painful, it calls to mine much of the research I've seen indicating that statisticians, economists, and psychologists all, despite their extensive math training, have probabilistic intuitions as poor as any Joe off the street. Statisticians have been called in as expert witnesses in, for example, SIDS cases where the errors they committed in court are on a level with the above example. People were/are in prison for a long time because "experts" aren't as reliable as we (or they) think.
Part of Huberman's job, unbeknownst to him or otherwise, is to develop (as a researcher) and sell (as a public "science educator") medical treatments. So he's oriented to recommend his priestly castes' ministrations. He also made another mistake: taking a group average and making it the norm for you. These are abstractions, and we usually have no idea what the population composition was/is.
I don't think so for two reasons. First, he didn't simplify the math, he did the math totally incorrectly. Second, he posted about the error in the video's description.
It was a bone-headed mistake. It happens. I mainly wanted to draw attention to the calculator that allows people to do the math correctly.
Good use of a good teaching opportunity! While that was painful, it calls to mine much of the research I've seen indicating that statisticians, economists, and psychologists all, despite their extensive math training, have probabilistic intuitions as poor as any Joe off the street. Statisticians have been called in as expert witnesses in, for example, SIDS cases where the errors they committed in court are on a level with the above example. People were/are in prison for a long time because "experts" aren't as reliable as we (or they) think.
Meadow's Law! Sally Clark spent years in prison over it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meadow%27s_law
Part of Huberman's job, unbeknownst to him or otherwise, is to develop (as a researcher) and sell (as a public "science educator") medical treatments. So he's oriented to recommend his priestly castes' ministrations. He also made another mistake: taking a group average and making it the norm for you. These are abstractions, and we usually have no idea what the population composition was/is.
Is it possible he was just simplifying the analysis for the 90% of the podcast audience that couldn't handle the math anyway?
I don't think so for two reasons. First, he didn't simplify the math, he did the math totally incorrectly. Second, he posted about the error in the video's description.
It was a bone-headed mistake. It happens. I mainly wanted to draw attention to the calculator that allows people to do the math correctly.